At the beginning of the Chinese New Year, an unexpected black swan pounced unexpectedly, diluting the smoke of the Sino-US trade war that has not yet dissipated. The fear of this uninvited guest has long replaced the anxiety about trade frictions. There is no doubt that this black swan will hit us and the global economy far more than the little loss caused by trade disputes between countries, and its far-reaching impact may exceed all our imagination now. But we don't have to panic too much because of this, panic won't solve any problems. If you look back at history from the perspective of the years, it is not difficult for us to find that no matter how big the plague is, sooner or later, no matter how cold the winter is, spring will eventually usher in. Of course, you must first ensure that you cannot fall into the winter. So be simple
After the "natural disaster" (we think this is just an unexpected natural disaster), the biggest problem facing the world must be the economic problem. How to activate the stalled economic engine and adjust the economic posture that has been out of balance will definitely be the most important consideration in the future. The most important.
We all know that the troika that has driven China’s economic growth for a long time is investment, consumption, and export. For our aluminum alloy automobile wheel industry, the most important thing is investment (requires large-scale and efficient production) and consumption (domestic OEM). And after-sales modification market) and export. So what is the specific situation of this "export" that our industry has always relied on for survival and development? Below we use historical data to review the export performance of China's mainland aluminum alloy wheel industry in the past eight years.
From the above data, it can be seen that from 2012 to 2019, the export of aluminum alloy wheel products in mainland China still maintained a relatively stable development trend under the environment of various chases and interceptions in the international market, but the export volume increased in 2019. A large decline, a reduction of 90,300 tons compared to the previous year. In terms of exports to the US market, the trend is similar to the overall export situation. There was also a significant decline in 2019, with a decrease of 110,724 tons compared with the previous year. (From this data, the decline in the overall export volume in 2019 is entirely due to The reduction in the number of products exported to the United States during the same period); in the above data, we can also see that the products exported to the United States in the past eight years are not in terms of value or
In terms of quantity, they account for about half of the total export volume of the mainland. The United States does indeed support half of our export market. From this point of view, the importance of the US market to us is beyond doubt; in addition, Another notable feature of the US market is that the average price is significantly higher than that of other overseas markets. During the eight-year statistical period, the average unit price of products exported to the US was US$5/kg, and the average unit price of products exported to non-US overseas markets was 4.52. USD/kg, the difference is more than 10%. If the average weight of each wheel is calculated at 10kg, the same wheel can be exported to the United States to sell an extra 4.8 US dollars. Due to the existence of this price difference, the export of products to the United States during the past eight years will give us extra Earned an extra 1.5 billion dollars! Earn more per year on average
$187 million! This is the reason why no matter how hateful and anti-American people are, once they have the opportunity to export their products to the United States, they will immediately abandon their previous suspicions and take orders without hesitation.
The above is an overview of the export market of our aluminum alloy wheel products, which is also a basic state under the normal international trade order in the past, but everyone knows that since 2018, China and the United States have had a great deal of mutual trade issues. Disagreements, frictions intensified after unsuccessful negotiations, and the two sides fought against each other. Both sides have carried out many rounds of dazzling trade sanctions and counter-sanctions. Among them, the US sanctions against us are directly related to the aluminum alloy wheel industry. On September 24, 2018, an additional 10% tariff was imposed on US$200 billion of Chinese products, including aluminum alloy wheels, and then an additional 25% tariff was imposed on the aforementioned US$200 billion on June 15, 2019. What is certain is that the two rounds of sanctions have already had a great impact on us. Judging from the directly visible information we have, the result is that the aforementioned aluminum alloy wheels exported to the United States in 2019 are different from the previous year. Compared with the decrease of 110,000 tons, the export value decreased by 647 million US dollars. Although the conclusion is clear, I personally think that some details are worthy of further exploration. Maybe we can understand some truths and sum up some experience through these limited data along the course of time, which will save us in the future. At least there is no harm in detours.
I sincerely hope that the storm will pass as soon as possible. I sincerely wish that the moment when the rainbow reappears, every resident in the global village will have the opportunity to witness
To this wonderful God's covenant, no one will be less than that!
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